There were 772 cargo theft incidents reported across Canada and the United States during Q3 2025. These followed 787 Q1 incidents and 884 Q2 theft events. While year-over-year (YoY) growth in incidents may be modest, the financial impact on businesses is not. Loss values totaled almost $61.7 million for Q2, but rose to over $111 million for Q3, despite there being fewer events.
Knowing holiday crime costs and patterns is essential for protecting your operations and staying prepared throughout the holiday season.
Understanding the Escalating and Long-Term Cost of Holiday Crime
Businesses can expect an even more costly Q4 if they experience theft for several reasons. Inflation continues to be a concern. The current rate of inflation remains above the 2% target, contributing to an ongoing tighter monetary policy. Changing trade policies create some economic uncertainty, and geopolitical events continue to result in supply chain adjustments. The reality of higher prices means that any incident of external theft would have a significant impact on your bottom line.
The cost of theft to your business also goes beyond financial harm. You may experience operational disruption and downtime that impacts productivity. A loss of customer trust can jeopardize loyalty and retention. You’ll likely spend hours determining what thieves took, filing police reports, and completing insurance claims or appealing denials. Too many claims can cause coverage cancellation, which is another issue that takes time to address.
Additionally, theft takes a toll on your employees’ morale. On-site incidents can increase anxiety about safety, especially for staff working odd shifts or in isolated business areas. Your workforce can lose trust in your company if they feel their security isn’t a priority. Plus, workloads can increase to make up for lost product, which seldom makes employees happy during the holiday season.
What Are the 2025 Holiday Theft Trends?
Emerging trends in regional theft hot spots, criminal sophistication, and high-value targeting signal significant shifts in crime patterns for 2025.
Hot Spots Are Changing
Traditional states like California and Texas remain active targets, with YoY growth of 11% and 12% respectively. Yet other areas are emerging as hot spots, including the New York City metropolitan region. Organized crime rings have transformed the area into an operational hub for cargo theft activity, further extending geographic impacts. Theft incidents in New Jersey rose 110%, while those in Pennsylvania grew 33%.
For businesses that operate in the Northeast Corridor, these increases mean there is substantially more risk now compared to previous years. The growth in incidents also means that the security measures you used last year may no longer be viable.
Criminals Are Using More Sophisticated Approaches
Opportunistic theft remains a concern. Straight theft like burglary and pilferage still accounts for 67% of events. However, advanced tactics and planned incidents are growing. Traditionally, thieves employed five to six different methods, and that’s now increased to 20 to 30 approaches. Organized crime events have jumped from 5% to 33% of all cargo theft.
With the explosion of the Internet of Things (IoT) and GPS technology, equipment is more connected than ever. Savvy thieves can hack into these systems to track shipments and transportation routes. Criminals are also carefully monitoring operations at physical locations more often to give them a better understanding of staffing patterns.
These evolving tactics highlight why comprehensive security approaches remain essential.
Thieves Are Targeting Different Types of Cargo
The value of cargo that thieves target is a key determinant in total financial loss. Food and beverage products and household goods remain the top two target categories, but theft of high-value and ultrahigh-value cargo is rising. Thieves are increasingly pursuing goods like cryptocurrency mining hardware, high-end audio equipment, and computer servers. Theft of metal goods and raw materials with high market demand is also surging. For example, theft of copper rose 85% in Q1 2025.
With this shift in targets comes a corresponding spike in average cost per incident. The average estimated event cost in 2024 was slightly over $200,000, an increase of more than $10,000 from 2023 estimates. In Q3 2025, the average soared to $336,787, nearly double the same period in 2024.
The Financial Picture Is Incomplete
While the costs above are startling, they also paint an incomplete picture of true losses. Unreported incidents are common because there are minimal chances of recovery in many cases.
Whether the theft is reported or not, hidden costs can occur that increase loss potential:
- Operational disruptions or productivity decreases that can be challenging to track, especially with manual approaches.
- Accounting principles that undervalue inventory by tracking actual cost basis versus replacement value.
- Insurance policies with high deductibles or exclusion clauses for certain inventory types.
Vulnerable Time Windows Are Expanding
Past data shows that thieves have a preference for the day of the week they like to strike. Fridays account for about 20% of all cargo theft incidents reported. Shippers may be rushing to get goods out the door before the weekend, making them less focused on security. Plus, Friday theft may go unnoticed until Monday morning, giving criminals the weekend to escape and unload the goods.
Historical data also verifies theft seasonality, showing that incidents often spike during the holiday months. For example, there were 79 incidents reported in late November 2024, a 64.58% increase over 2023 data. Trends also show that theft typically peaks in December, as seasonal shipments of high-value goods rise.
Several other factors contribute to these increases.
Staffing and local traffic often decrease during the holidays. Many employees enjoy time off, and nearby businesses may also be less populated. While typical weekends offer thieves a two-day window, companies may shut down for four days or more in late November or late December. All translate into more opportunities for criminal activity to go undetected for longer.
Additionally, business cycles contribute to increased goods on-site. Many companies add to their inventories as they prepare for the holiday season and its projected spikes in demand. Government organizations and contractors face pressure to deplete budgets under “use it or lose it” rules, leading to late-year spending. This means more stock on hand, which can further tempt criminals who anticipate a bigger payday.
Get Ultimate Perimeter Security With AMAROK
Your business doesn’t have to become just another statistic. Protect your property, your people, and your profits throughout the year with industry-leading perimeter security solutions from AMAROK. It all starts with The Electric Guard Dog™ Fence, which is 99% effective at preventing external theft after installation.
Take the next step to stopping crime by contacting your local AMAROK expert or connecting with us online for a free risk assessment.
